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I'll place the same comment here as I placed there. :)

“Productivity” is not a perfect measure of “Total Factor Productivity”

Another factor is, hopefully, that entrepreneurs now expect the Fed to keep us closer to real-income maximizing inflation than in the past. Pre-FAIT, the threat of a Phillips Curve-inspired, Fed-induced recession “to control inflation” always loomed. Maybe this is a bit of what the author means by “momentum.”

That the economy “remains” competitive should not explain a change in productivity.

I agree about AI.

There is, however a negative factor. Fiscal deficits are higher than in the past and this represents a larger shift than in the past of resources from investment to consumption. [This statement depends on believing that most expenditures do not have NPV >0 and that taxation reduces consumption less than borrowing reduces other investment, But I think those re reasonable assumptions.]

https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/p/fiscal-policy-and-everything-else

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Excellent

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Excellent analysis; time will tell!

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What about the long-term trends in demography?

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Not concerned over the time frame we are talking here ~10 years. Very concerned over the longer horizon.

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Thank you.

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