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Aaron De Los Reyes's avatar

So "Liberation Day(s)" are here and the whole pile of pro Trump economics, business & financial writers have disappeared as they can't defend or even model the chaos of the last 30 days..

this is GFC & Covid on crack.. its like a daily TARP vote..

We have a "Negative Gamma" sell into a declines which is blasting our global financial economics, economy, business environment. We are stuck in "Buy the truth and sell the news" is our real world facts.. stuck in recession all man made...

Everyone knows this is demolishing earnings projections for 20,000 public trading companies, top 10,000 private firms in the world. These 30,000 firms are earth..These firms are 90% of earnings, 90% corporate taxes, 85% of trade, 90% of private R&D, 90% CapX, 85% technology spending, 90% Industrial investment, 60% of employees..

As these 30,000 firms cut their earning projections, hiring, investment, trade, taxes.. this will smash $10 trillions out of the global economy.

Then the largest 1000 banks & 5000 financial firms in the world which drive $100s of trillions of financial flows across equities, credit, currency, trade, payments, swaps, financial products, pensions, funds, etc.. they are very sensitive to massive change and will reduce $10s of trillions of transactions which will blast their balance sheets

This is "man made" train wreck recession but the hard right & pro Trump wing are stuck as they have zero answers as team Trump is blowing up the global economy..

Outside of all of this everything is great.. can't wait to see the pro Trump & hard right defense of this in their economics & financial opinion pieces..

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PML's Macro Focus's avatar

I love this summary, thank you. The Jan 25 paper looks at the productivity effects within each industry. But recessions cause shifts in industrial composition. Do they look at that? We’ve become more service oriented and less manufacturing. Every time factories close in a recession, the new ones opens up abroad, not in the US. Not the same for restaurants and delivery drivers.

Since the industry shares have changed so much over time, it’s difficult to compare episodes

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